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Don’t Worry, Be Happy – EIA AEO 2011

As yesterday I said about Keep Your Eyes ON on Oil Price (keep going up from $91/BBL as per today), today I found a very interesting article from The Oil Drum (TOD) about EIA Annual Energy Outlook.

While every body keep awake on end year holiday, EIA said Don’t worry be happy on 2011. They said we no longer have to worry about energy supply or prices. Cheap energy will characterize the world for most of the next decade, according to the report. Oil will not reach $100 per barrel until 2017 and natural gas will remain below $5 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) until 2022.(1)

Did they say not reach $100? So, around $91 is already the highest point for the next 5-6 years ahead?

Like I said before, keep your eyes on it. Because although EIA Outlook told the different story, Wall Street is getting nervous already. As oil prices continue to creep up and as more evidence accumulates that the age of ever-growing energy production and economic growth is coming to an end, a specter is haunting the great investment banks and brokerage houses of New York.

Don’t worry be happy but keep your eyes On. ;-)

Keep Your Eyes on Oil Price

“The message is clear, the price will go up, especially if consuming countries do not make changes in the way they consume oil, especially in the transport sector,” the IEA‘s chief economist, Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview.

Oil prices will exceed $200 (144 euro) a barrel by 2035, and will likely stay over $100 a barrel after 2015, the report said. On Tuesday the price of oil stood at roughly $87 a barrel.(1)

In fact, no need to wait 2035 nor 2015, a recent run of cold weather across Europe and the U.S. is driving oil prices higher on anticipation of rising demand.

Crude oil for February delivery last traded at $91.18 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from an opening price of $90.79 but down from a session high of $91.34.

A massive blizzard that struck the east coast on Monday brought travel to a halt.(2)

But,  Iran’s OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said on Sunday that the oil market was stable and the crude prices could reach $100 per barrel, the Oil Ministry’s website SHANA reported. “In the opinion of the experts there is no need for an emergency OPEC meet under stable oil market conditions,” Khatibi said.(3)

So, keep watching.

Anyway, I just installed the Chrome Extensions, Market Watcher (Energy). Market Watcher (Energy) allows for looking at the values of crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and propane gas at a glance via the icon, mouse over tooltip, and popup. This information provided by, but now you don’t have to go to that page. Just click (as showed on the picture below), and the information is yours. Try it!

ASEAN/APEC Joint Workshop on Energy Statistics

The APEC/ASEAN Joint Workshop on Energy Statistics was held in Bangkok, Thailand on 08-12 November 2010. This was the second joint workshop on energy statistics between APEC and ASEAN.

Participants from ASEAN member states and APEC economies namely Cambodia, China, Hong Kong China, Indonesia, Japan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Peru, the Philippines, Russian Federation, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam attended the joint workshop. Experts from the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Energy Forum Secretariat (IEFS) were the speakers during the workshop. Staff and expert from the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) also participated in the workshop.

The covered topic: all energy statistics, which are JODI, the monthly gas data (JODI Gas), quarterly data, annual data and energy consumption data.

Energy Training Week – IEA

Logo of International Energy Agency

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I just got the information by today that the IEA is pleased to announce that it is opening its doors for a week of free* training on energy specifically aimed at professionals in developing countries and emerging economies. Its called Energy Training Week and will be held on 4-8 April 2011 in IEA Headquarters, Paris, France.

There are five course available, which are:

1. Energy Essentials for Decision Makers (with a special focus on natural gas)

2. Oil and Gas Market Security (with a special focus on natural gas)

3. Energy Efficiency and Low Carbon Policy (focus on climate sustainability)

4. Low Carbon Technology Policy and Planning (focus on technology deployment roadmaps)

5. Energy Analysis and Modelling (focus on methods and tools)

Over the course of five intensive days, participants will take part in a mixture of highly focussed lectures and hands-on exercises, thereby becoming familiar with the theory behind and the application of the IEA’s internationally recognised models and tools. All courses will be highly interactive, allowing participants to engage directly with IEA experts and to exchange knowledge and experience with peers from many other countries.  The event will also offer many opportunities for informal networking.

Check the detail information on IEA’s site here and download your registration form here.

As my work goes with course 4 and 5 but we can only attend one course at the time, so I decide to apply for course 4. I think I need this more in the way to start my job on IEA-ASEAN team to develop ASEAN Energy Technology Roadmap.

*Anyway, free only means for attendance charge. You still have to cover your own travel and accomodations costs by your own.

ESSPA Modeling Workshop using MICROFIT

2nd Workshop of the Energy Supply Security Planning in ASEAN (ESSPA) Project under the SOME-METI Work Program 2009-2010
(Working Meeting on the Development of 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook)

Date : 22 – 26 February 2010
Venue : Atlet Century Park Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia
Participants : Cambodia, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand

Experts :
1. Mr. Shigeru Kimura : Senior Research Fellow of The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
2. Mr. Edito Barcelona : Senior Researcher of The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
3. Ms. Cecillya Malik : ASEAN Expert

Objectives : How to develop a reliable energy outlook modeling for every country in various sectors using MICROFIT.

Organized by ASEAN Centre for Energy and Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, supported by Ministry of Economics, Trade and Industry, Japan.

International Fuel Prices 2009 – GTZ

Fuel taxes are an important source of revenue for financing the transport sector. They charge road user the costs of transport infrastructure. While 10 US cents per liter may yield the financial resources necessary to maintain the road system, an additional 3-5 US cents can be a source of finance for urban transport.

Numerous countries earn revenues through fuel taxes, which can be used for reducing public transport fares or providing social services. Fuel taxation can shift the burden of indirect negative effects of transport (such as environmental pollution, noise, congestion costs, etc.) onto transport users.(1)

As I conduct some research on Energy Prices in ASEAN now, I found a very comprehensive publication on fuel prices, published by GTZ on 2009.

I can resume the oil price for gasoline and diesel in ASEAN as of November 2008 as shown in the table below. All prices is in US$ Cent/litre.

You can download the full GTZ report here, or just wait my publication on Energy Prices in ASEAN on January 2011 with the latest and most update data from 10 ASEAN Member States.

How to Collect Energy Data

One of my biggest fear in the 2011 is developing ASEAN Energy Review (AER). It’s an annual publication on energy statistic in ASEAN Region. Last published is in 2008, with 1996 baseline data, during the period of AEEMTRC project who headed by Dr. Jean-Yves Garnier (now Head of Energy Statistics, IEA).

Collecting data is a monster. As what Mr. Brett Jacobs, South-East Asia Programme Manager, IEA (former Head of Australian Energy Demand Energy Statistics team) shared with me, two thing about collecting data, is a difficult and thankless task. The data respondent are all voluntary, so it’s our mandatory to make their task as easy and as rewarding as possible.

For this AER, I have to collect the data on primary energy supply, energy transformation, energy demand and consumption in the oil, gas, coal, electricity, and renewable energy sectors from 10 ASEAN Member Countries.

Lucky me, I got support from Dr. Garnier and Mr. Brett who generously share some tips about data collecting that I can resumed to all of you.

1)      Get official contacts appointed by Member countries
2)      Have a close (maybe friendly) relationship with these contacts
3)      Regular meetings of contacts greatly helps establishing strong links
4)      Limit the reporting burden to the minimum, but be firm with was is needed to do your job
5)      Have user-friendly questionnaire, clear, easy to understand, electronic (Excel or internet)
6)      Give clear instructions and deadlines and be firm on the deadlines.
7)      If people don’t answer or send data on time, explain them the Legal Framework that tasked the collecting data
8)      Give fast feedback on the quality of their submissions. Query any data point you think is wrong. Show that you use their data. For info, every year, IEA publish a Report Card to show our contacts as well as IEA policy makers the issues we found on the annual submissions of all our IEA member countries in terms of timeliness, completeness and quality. This is very effective.
9)      Prepare document based on the data received and circulate these documents to all your contacts, so they can see that their data is used.

Lot of things to do but also lot of way to do it. I hope this tips are useful for you.

Will share more during my work on AER.

Oil Stockpiling in Southeast Asia

On the 16-17 June 2010, International Energy Agency (IEA) conducted a joint workshop with Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) of Indonesia in Jakarta, Indonesia. The theme of the workshop is “Establishing policy, legislation, structures and procedures for national emergency preparedness”.

I attended this workshop as one of the speaker, along with the experts from IEA and Industry. I presented about the Development of Oil Stockpiling Roadmap for ASEAN+3.

ASEAN+3 recognized the necessity of oil stockpiling initiatives in thelight of persistent risks of supply disruptions and highly volatile oilmarket. To facilitate and encourage all member states to further improve oilstockpiling initiatives, considering prevailing high prices, volatility inthe international oil markets and risks of supply disruptions, the ministers of ASEAN+3 welcomed the activities for the development of the Oil Stockpiling Roadmap.

All ASEAN+3 Countries had achieved a common understanding on the needs and benefit of Oil Stockpiling Roadmap development, as well as on major issues to be considered in building up OSRM in each country having consideration the fact, ASEAN+3 will become net importer of oil and more dependency on oil product innear future. Due to differences of economic situation and the need of OSRM ofeach country, it is not possible to make Detail Oil Stockpiling Roadmap with a concrete targets for ASEAN+3 countries at this moment as ASEAN+3 desired.

You can read the complete information about the event here, and download my presentation here.